October Edition 2026

This month marked a shift from a slow-burning US–Iran conflict to open naval engagement around the Strait of Hormuz, with spillover strikes on Kuwait and on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Brent held above $95 throughout the month and peaked near $108. Monetary policy tightened on both sides of the Atlantic. The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023, to 3.75–4.00%, and the ECB also hiked. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 5.25%, its highest level since 2002. The S&P 500 was little changed, but technology was the only rising sector, gold fell about 8.5%, and the dollar strengthened. Private capital adapted rather than retreated: take-privates in insurance and payments, an infrastructure exit at more than twice entry value, and multibillion-dollar AI compute rounds defined the month, while retail private credit funds faced redemption requests well above their caps.